A lot of different theories and explanations are going to be discussed in the coming days as to what happened in this election. I think it’s incredibly important to try to break through a lot of noisie and try to focus on root causes. And in the end, in my opinion a key root cause is that Hillary was the wrong candidate for this time. Look at the two data sets below.
She did not get out the vote, significantly underperforming Obama in 2012. There was a massive enthusiasm gap. Trump did not increase the overall Republican electorate. In fact, he underperformed both McCain and Romney. But Hillary fell short of Obama in 2012 by over 6 million votes. That’s why she lost.
It’s amazing that with all that is at stake, nearly half of the electorate did not vote. It’s certainly something we need to continue to discuss. Voter suppression, the gutting of the Voting Rights Act, the challenges in simply registering to vote. All important issues.
But in the end, Hillary lost because people didn’t like her, didn’t trust her, and just didn’t come out to vote for her. All the things that led to her being the nominee, and the establishment calculus that they could get her elected despite her shortcomings, should be the first thing we focus on as we think about the next couple of cycles.